专家问&答:博士. Sujoy B. 罗伊讨论建模和分析来评估未来气候变化的影响
Sujoy B. 罗伊, 博士学位, 他是利乐中国十大彩票网拉斐特的首席工程师, 加州, 办公室, 拥有超过25年的大型水相关建模项目经验.
“I was drawn to climate change because of the scale and consequences of the problem,” said Dr. 罗伊. 着眼于更长期的基础设施和未来的供水研究, 气候方面的考虑较少被视为一门独立的学科, 并且更多地整合到正在进行的和长期的分析中.
“I was drawn to climate change because of the scale, significance, and consequences of the problem.”
Dr. 罗伊领导了几项与水资源相关的主要跨学科研究, 水的质量, 水部门项目的温室气体排放, 以及海平面上升的影响, 特别关注未来增长和气候变化. Several of his key studies include climate change impacts on water supplies from Los Angeles Aqueduct, 一项中国十大彩票网气候变化对未来水资源的影响的全国性研究, 以及正在进行的中国十大彩票网圣华金河谷农业适应的研究, 在加州, 潜在的气候变化.
Dr. 罗伊曾在美国海军服役.S. 2009年至2015年担任美国环境保护署科学顾问委员会成员. He also served on National Academy of Sciences panels on Missouri River Basin restoration and on Clean Water Act Implementation across the Mississippi Basin. He holds both a doctorate and master’s degree in civil and environmental engineering from Carnegie Mellon University and a bachelor’s technical degree in civil engineering from the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi.
I've been involved in modeling in two ways: looking at it from the cycling of organic carbon in the environment and looking at impacts to human systems and infrastructure. 我从20世纪90年代中期就开始参与气候相关的研究. 我早期的一些工作涉及大规模地观察碳循环, 而最近, 我一直在研究对特定领域的影响, 比如水资源或者水质.
I think climate change has always been a part of projects that are looking at longer-term impacts. 例如，气候变化如何影响未来的供水方案? It is quite typical in looking at long-range 水的质量 planning or ecosystem planning to evaluate the impacts of future climate, 尤其是最近. It is seen less as a separate discipline and more as integral to the ongoing, long-term analysis.
What types of questions are you addressing in your more recent modeling focused on the impacts of climate change on water resources?
An area of great interest to me is how extreme behaviors will change in my own area of study related to water. 长期干旱会发生什么? 极端高温事件会发生什么, 以及极端降水事件会发生什么? Those are the periods when weather effects have a big impact on human and natural systems. 随着气候变暖, what’s the incidence of extremely hot days or the incidence of extreme rainstorms that could cause flooding?
We are looking at longer-term time horizons for climate change impacts to evaluate the suitability of proposed infrastructure. 如果你要在海岸附近修路, it's important to understand what the flooding or the storm surge will be over the decades to come. You are looking at the specific impacts to your infrastructure and how to make it more resilient to a more variable climate. 这不仅仅是平均值的变化. 中国十大彩票网们谈论气候变化是指温度升高, 但我们需要担心的不仅仅是这些平均值. 极端情况也可能发生变化, and I think most of the damage to systems happens during those extreme periods. 百年一遇的洪水是我们非常关心的问题. Is there information that suggests that kind of an extreme event is becoming more commonplace? 这是我们分析的重点. 我的团队在利乐中国十大彩票网就是这么做的.
What are the biggest challenges you face when modeling future impacts of climate change on water resources?
尽管有很多研究, we still don't have a good understanding of what's going to happen with something like precipitation in different regions. There could be more extreme wet periods, and we could be worrying about drought at the same time. 我们面临的挑战是，作为一个社会，我们该如何为此做出规划? If we knew that there would be more droughts, we would be responding a certain way. 如果我们预计会有更多的洪水，我们就会采取不同的应对方式. 我认为这两个极端都有可能发生, 未来情景的广度才是最大的挑战. For example, looking at 加州, models suggest that the future climate could be wetter or drier. Depending on which way it goes, we may have to make very different investments.
How do you address the uncertainty involved in predicting future impacts related to climate change and provide meaningful information for your clients?
目前，我们采取的方法是试图传达这种不确定性. Even though climate change is one of the most actively researched topics today, 我们描述未来20至30年情况的信心相当有限. 我认为这是一个教育过程. 我希望中国十大彩票网们意识到未来规划的潜在风险. 我知道有很多可能的情况. Some of the needed investments for greater flood protection or enhanced water supplies are huge. 有时，这些气候影响和投资可能跨越几代中国十大彩票网. The best recommendation we can provide to our clients is to inform them of the range of possibilities and try to better understand the weak points in their systems so we can focus on the most effective actions.
Has there been advancement in the modeling technology or in data acquisition to feed climate change models?
绝对. 我想每一年——或者肯定是每几年——我们收集的数据类型, 以及我们收集数据的效率和成本, 提高了. We understand our natural systems much better and the value of that resource becomes more and more apparent to society. 我们用于建模的工具将随着我们获得越来越多的数据而扩展, 特别是中国十大彩票网我们正在建模的系统的时间细节数据. That improvement is happening because of cheaper technology and the value we're giving to better understand these systems.
What do you think will be potentially the biggest future advancement in the modeling of climate change impacts on water resources?
社会希望我们提供更可信的未来情景来应对. There was a point when climate change itself was a concept that many people did not agree with or thought it was too far in the future. I think we’re past that and our clients are now trying to make reasonable decisions about long-term infrastructure sustainability. If we acknowledge that climate change will happen, the next question is what we should do about it. 我认为建模的进步将在未来几年提供更好的洞察力. The people making decisions on infrastructure investments should have more confidence in the future conditions they are planning to deal with.